Though some may debate the label to be placed on the current economic downturn, no one questions the fact that the country is certainly in the midst of one. And while the crisis was born of defaulting subprime mortgages in the financial markets, it has rippled into the rest of the American economy. Unfortunately, healthcare has not been spared the ill effects. To help hospital executives navigate these choppy waters, HRCM Editor-in-Chief Anthony Guerra recently talked with Susie Krentz, senior principal, strategy and planning national practice director, with the Noblis Center for Health Innovation in Falls Church, Va.
AG: It seems like your group, the Noblis Center, has decided to dig into this area to help hospitals through it. Tell me a little bit about your perspective as to what's going on with the economy.
SK: I think, for many years and in general, people often say that healthcare is a recession-proof industry. In some ways, healthcare is recession-proof in so far as people getting sick during a recession. No matter what the economy is like, people still have healthcare needs, and that was the basis for that little phrase. The reality is recessions do impact the health and the financial health of healthcare organizations, regardless of what kind of queue is outside the emergency room, or needing to come into the hospital for care. I think, as you look at hospitals across the country, there are some very direct places, where there is an impact because of the recession, on the viability of healthcare organizations, or their ability to stay as (much) on as firm footing as they would like.
AG: You just mentioned the fact that the patient volume doesn't really decrease, so what is the real impact of the economy on hospitals and health systems?
SK: When you look at where you see pressures, it's on their revenue side or the expense side; it's pretty simple math. When you get into a recession, what happens on the revenue side is as people lose jobs (and) become unemployed, they often lose their health insurance. One kind of direct impact on the revenue side is people who need care but no longer have the health insurance to cover the cost, so they present to the healthcare organizations that are now faced with increased charity care loads.
Even when someone is employed — take the average middle class person who is employed and may have health insurance — a lot of the health insurance has co-pays or deductibles. “Fred” goes to the hospital, he's employed, has insurance, but they have to pay $100 of the co-pay of some sort. When gas prices go up, when the mortgage bill comes due, with all the pressures on families, even with insurance, the healthcare organization is not always at the top of people's list of bills they're going to pay. Because the hospitals are there, they have a mission; they know they have a mission to provide care, which is true, so that means bad debt goes up. So, on the revenue side, even when there's demand, the revenue doesn't always follow.
Then if you take it another step, employers in a recession are trying to improve their bottom lines. They put more pressure on their health insurers. They don't want to pay as much for health insurance, or they want the rates to not go up as much, which leads to changes in the policies, which often increases the co-pays or deductibles, or employers require higher payment on the part of employees to cover dependents. Then you have a situation where the employee might be covered but they no longer pay for the rest of their family to be covered. Again, it's like the domino. The employers and the businesses are being hit by the recession, they want to improve their bottom line, they put pressure on the insurers, it changes the structure for the employee, down the road. It's not a direct hit, but the revenue side feels the effects.
Then, on the expense side, you can see just with a lot of the uncertainty in the markets what happened with the interest rates and the willingness to lend money. That has implications as hospitals finance with any kind of debt finance, the interest rates go up which, again, unrelated to demand, is just the cost to access capital increases. That means it costs more to do the same capital initiative compared to what it would have done some years ago. If you want to do some form of debt financing, it's a little more difficult to structure.
AG: Have we really seen interest rates go up yet?
SK: With some of the bond insurers having difficulty, and a number of the different auction markets, there have been financing vehicles that hospitals have used as part of their overall financing strategy that have become more expensive. A lot of that is the spin off from the whole mortgage crisis, which affects a lot of lending. There's just a lot of wariness as people get a little more risk averse about lending money. Certain of these markets have had some problems, as insurers have been negatively impacted from the mortgage crisis.
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